WASHINGTON, D.C. — Congressman Michael Baumgartner (WA-05) introduced the Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act (H.R. 10109), legislation to prohibit prediction-market platforms from listing or clearing contracts that allow speculators to profit from wildfire events.

“We’ve already had enough problems with arsonists causing wildfires in Eastern Washington, we don’t need betting markets giving potential big financial incentives to start fires,” said Congressman Baumgartner. “When a wildfire threatens a community, every effort should be focused on protecting families, homes, and first responders. Congress should draw a clear line and make sure federally regulated markets cannot facilitate wagers on the devastation of American communities.”

In an August 2026 letter to the Commodities Future Trading Commission, nine senators cited public reports that Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in bets connected to the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires. Those contracts allowed users to speculate on outcomes such as the number of acres burned, whether fires would spread to certain areas, and when they would be contained.    

The fires, started by an arsonist who has confessed to starting 25 other fires, forced tens of thousands of residents to evacuate, burned roughly 10,000 acres, and destroyed or heavily damaged more than 900 structures. Though there is no evidence that the alleged arson was connected to a prediction-market wager, the risk is too obvious to ignore. 

The Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act would:

• Prohibit federally registered prediction-market entities from listing or clearing wildfire event contracts;
• Prevent platforms from evading the prohibition by basing contracts on related measures or data, including acreage, containment, evacuations, and property damage;
• Preserve State authority to regulate or prohibit gambling and gaming; and
• Require the Department of Justice, in consultation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and relevant land-management agencies, to identify existing enforcement tools and recommend any additional authorities needed to deter and prosecute wildfire-related betting schemes, including overseas prediction markets.

The bill does not restrict wildfire forecasting, fire-weather science, emergency-response operations, or legitimate insurance products. It addresses only event contracts listed or cleared on federally registered prediction-market platforms.